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WTA Madrid Final Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Originally posted on Last Word On Sports
By Jordan Reynolds | Last updated 5/2/24

It is a repeat of last year’s WTA Madrid final, with world No. 1 taking Iga Swiatek taking on Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian got the better of the French Open champion in 2023, but the Pole will be hoping the strong form she has shown so far in the Spanish capital leads to a different result this time. We at LWOT give our prediction and analysis for the final in this article. But which player do you think will reign supreme in Madrid?

WTA Madrid Final Prediction

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Head-to-head: Swiatek 6-3 Sabalenka

These two women have reached this stage in very different ways. Swiatek has only dropped one set so far, which came against Beatriz Haddad Maia. By contrast, four of Sabalenka’s victories in Madrid have been in the deciding set. This includes her thrilling semifinal with Elena Rybakina, who served for the match at 5-4 in the second set, but Sabalenka somehow managed to fight back and triumph 1-6 7-5 7-6.

There are two sources of hope for the Australian Open champion. Firstly, she has a day off before the final, meaning the physical toll of her battle with Rybakina should not be an issue. Secondly, Sabalenka will believe she can beat Swiatek after last year’s final win. Many players seem defeated before the match even starts against the world No. 1, especially on clay. That will not be the case for Sabalenka, whose best chance of beating Swiatek on the dirt is on a slightly quicker clay-court like the one in Madrid.

Nonetheless, Swiatek is backed to avenge last year’s loss and claim her first title in Madrid. The quality of her tennis has been superb so far, even by her standards. That level is likely to be good enough against Sabalenka, with the Belarusian relying more on her terrific fighting spirit to get to this point, with flashes of her formidable game. Last year’s tight 6-3 3-6 6-3 final victory for Sabalenka was also an anomaly in their rivalry so far, with Swiatek winning their other three clay-court meetings in straight sets.

The final being played in the daytime when the courts are a little quicker will give Sabalenka some assistance, but it is unlikely to be enough. Swiatek to prevail in straight sets.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2

This article first appeared on Last Word On Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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